Everton V Newcastle United (30/09/13)

"If we want to be serious about being in the top ten or look to bigger things, or be a big team in the Premier League, we have to start to take the chances we have." ...Fabricio Coloccini

As you'd expect given our disappointing result against Hull on Saturday, my Newcastle tips were a total washout last week.  My general football tips performed quite well, however, as I correctly predicted QPR to beat Yeovil 1-0 and Swansea to beat Crystal Palace.

Last season the trend was for my general football tips to regularly outperform my Newcastle tips, and things have started off once again in that vein of form.  I don't know whether that means it's therefore wiser to keep your emotions out of your betting choices, or maybe it just means Newcastle are an unpredictable side who often lose the games we should be winning.

I've come to the conclusion that when Newcastle play, a lot depends on which side turns up on the day, and by that I'm not necessarily referring to who Pardew picks in his starting eleven.  We just don't seem to have any consistency, and our performance can vary quite considerably even throughout the ninety minutes.

Despite that unpredictability, however, I'm still going to try to pick out some winning Toon bets.  I'm skipping our League Cup tie against Leeds and instead making a few predictions for our match against Everton on Monday...

Man City V Newcastle United (19/08/13)

A round-up of which bookies are offering the best prices.

We couldn't have been given a tougher opening fixture, and therefore even the biggest optimist would find it hard to confidently tip Newcastle away to Man City.

So instead here's a round-up of which bookies are offering the best odds on various betting markets for The Toon's opening fixture...

Match Betting:

Man City - 1.33 (Coral, Bet Victor, Paddy Power)
Draw - 5.5 (SkyBet, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Bet 365)
Newcastle United - 11.0 (SkyBet)

Reasons To Be Cheerful...

Miscellaneous Toon Bets For 2013/14

I think it's fair to say that so far this summer hasn't gone the way most of us would have liked, with the appointment of Joe Kinnear and the lack of signings being the two most obvious disappointments.

However, the optimist in me always wants to find reasons to be cheerful and so I've been looking at the odds involving the Toon for the coming season in various betting markets to see if we can take encouragement from the bookies' level of confidence in us.

I have to admit there aren't overwhelming reasons to be confident, but here are a few odds to take slight encouragement from...

1) Top North East Club

Despite Sunderland making several signings, every bookie offering odds on the 'Top North East Club' have us as favourites to finish above Sunderland.  That's SkyBet, William Hill, Paddy Power, Totesport, YouWin, BoyleSports, BetFred and Ladbrokes who all think we'll finish above Sunderland.

If you fancy a bet on Newcastle to be the Top North East Club then the best odds are currently offered by SkyBet who have us priced at 1.8.*

* Please note, SkyBet also include Hull in their 'Top North East Club' market.

Who Will Leave Newcastle First?

Pardew V Kinnear

You can bet on pretty much everything nowadays and Paddy Power were recently offering a market on who will be the first to leave Newcastle United, Alan Pardew or Joe Kinnear?

A recent poll on The Mag suggested that fans think Pardew will leave the club before Kinnear and the bookies seem to agree with the odds as follows:

Alan Pardew - 1.5
Joe Kinnear - 2.5

Joe Kinnear's appointment was initially greeted with silence from Alan Pardew, and when he did eventually comment, he wasn't exactly overwhelming in his support of Kinnear with Pardew declaring himself to be 'open-minded' about the appointment.  Given that Pardew generally toes the party line, that's a pretty damning criticism of Kinnear.

Premier League Match Bets Featuring The Toon

Newcastle United Versus...

SkyBet are currently offering a variety of Premier League match bets on which of two teams will finish higher in the Premier League next season and The Toon feature in four match bets.

Specifically, SkyBet offer prices for us against Everton, West Brom, the mackems and Southampton.  According to SkyBet, we're favourites against the mackems, West Brom and Southampton and only Everton are regarded as more likely to finish above us in the Premier League next season.

Here are the odds for each of the match bets:

Newcastle V the mackems
Newcastle - 1.4
the mackems - 3.0

Newcastle V Everton:
Newcastle - 2.63
Everton - 1.5

The Latest Transfer Odds

Transfer Rumours: Who Will Be The Ins and Outs At St. James Park?

We're only a couple of weeks into the close season and already the transfer rumour mill is into full swing with new potential transfers being reported every day.  A lot of the time the stories make no sense at all and you get the impression sometimes that the papers have just plucked a player out of one hat and then plucked a team out of the next hat when coming up with their stories.

I think sometimes a better guide to potential transfers are the odds being offered by the bookies, as obviously bookies have a lot more to lose than newspapers if they get it wrong.

The latest rumour in yesterday's papers was that Monaco are interested in Hatem Ben Arfa and according to SkyBet the current odds on a move for Ben Arfa are as follows:

2012/13 Season Round-Up

"No football for three months!"

It's been a season to forget and one with very few positives, but despite the poor standard of football on offer this season, I still found myself yesterday morning thinking, "Ar, no!  No football for three months!"

Obviously the eternal optimist in me wants to hope that next season will be better, but for that to happen changes clearly need to be made.  I've gradually lost patience with Alan Pardew and his constant excuse making as the season has gone on, but I'm not necessarily as desperate to see him go as some fans are.  I just want him to start accepting responsibility when things go wrong.

Managers are susceptible to good and bad form, just like players, but if things are to improve then Pardew needs to recognise his mistakes.  He needs to be more ambitious.  He needs to realise that avoiding relegation isn't a success.  He needs to realise that all clubs suffer from injuries so the time to complain about a lack of depth in the squad is pre-season when you can do something about it, rather than halfway through the season when the damage is already done.

General Football Tips (19/05/13)

...And Odds For The Toon V Arsenal

So in the end it was Wigan who claimed the third and final relegation spot, and although the mackems would obviously have been our first choice, it's safe to say that few Newcastle fans will be disappointed to see Wigan making the drop.

The end of a season that most Toon fans will want to quickly forget sees us come up against an Arsenal side who need three points to ensure a Champions League spot.

SkyBet have the match priced as follows:

Newcastle - 6.0
Draw - 4.0
Arsenal - 1.53

General Football Tips (11-12/05/13)

...And Odds For QPR V The Toon

After Swansea's comeback against Wigan the other night, things are now looking slightly more comfortable.  SkyBet currently have us priced at a very skinny 1/20 to stay up, but I'll still feel a lot less nervous if we can beat QPR.

A week or so ago the possible permutations on how things would turn out at the bottom of the table were seemingly endless, but now the maths is suddenly looking a lot simpler.  If we get more points against QPR on Sunday than Wigan get against Arsenal on Tuesday then we're safe.  (Update: Chesea's win over Villa means if we beat QPR then we're definitely safe irrespective of how Wigan get on at Arsenal).

Hopefully this late season scare will serve as a wake up call to Ashley and Llambias for next season, but for now all that matters is the result against QPR.

Once again I'm avoiding making any tips on the Toon and just posting the odds for the most popular Toon betting markets, then following this up with a few general football tips...

General Football Tips (04-06/05/13): Round-Up

One point won or two points dropped?

I think before the weekend if you'd offered us a draw then most fans would happily have taken a point.  However, Wigan's comeback against West Brom and Villa's win over Norwich, not to mention Cisse's 'goal' over the line which wasn't given meant there were mixed feelings on Saturday evening.

Frustratingly, the linesman Matthew Wilkes who fell over and didn't see Cisse's goal was the same linesman who, according to the FA, witnessed Callum NcManaman's potentially career threatening challenge on Haidara and decided it wasn't a foul.

SkyBet have us priced at 1/8 to stay up, so hopefully the players will show the same level of confidence going into our final two games.  For this and our final two matches I'm steering clear of bets on the Toon, but my general football tips made a slight profit this week.

General Football Tips (04-06/05/13)

All That Matters Is Survival...

I started this blog to test whether it's better to bet with your head or your heart and so far this season my general football tips have performed with a clear advantage over my Toon tips.  Our disappointing results have meant that at times I've been overly optimistic when backing The Toon.

On the other hand a few months ago my general football tips went on a run of seven successive profitable weeks and then followed this up more recently with another run of seven out of eight profitable weeks, so I would have to conclude that it's definitely wiser to bet with your head rather than your heart.

However, that's possibly in part down to the inconsistent season we've had and I suspect that Man United fans (and Reading and QPR fans if they were being objective) would probably have found their own teams' results easier to predict.

Newcastle United V Liverpool (27/04/13)

My Tips For The Toon V Liverpool

With four matches to go we currently have a six point cushion over third bottom Wigan (who have a game in hand), and with Villa three points below us and Stoke and the mackems level with us on points, three points against Liverpool would go a long way towards guaranteeing our Premier League status next season.

Here are my optimistic bets this week...

Toon Tips:

Match Result: 
30 points on Newcastle at 2.88
The bookies make Liverpool the slight favourites but their recent form has been average with three consecutive draws against Chelsea, Reading and West Ham.  They'll also be without Suarez who starts his ten match ban (even if Suarez decides to appeal, the automatic three match ban for violent conduct - which he's admitted - would start immediately), so it could possibly be a decent time to play Liverpool right now.  Until the mackem match our home league form was excellent, with four consecutive home wins in the league, so hopefully the derby match was just a blip.

All things considered I'm going to go for an optmistic bet on a Toon win and then back this up with a smaller more cautious bet on us in the Double Chance market.

Double Chance: 
20 points on Newcastle Or Draw at 1.53

West Brom V The Toon: Tips Round-Up

My Tips For West Bromwich Albion V Newcastle United: Round-Up

Rather worryingly, Norwich, Stoke and the mackems all won this weekend which means that the cushion of teams between us and relegation is getting ever smaller.  Wigan or Villa still look the favourites to be the third team relegated, but three points against Liverpool on Saturday would certainly ease the nerves.

Here's how my tips got on...

Toon Tips:

Match Result: 
30 points on Draw at 3.4 - WIN 102 points
It was a game of two halves, with chances not taken in the first half ultimately proving costly as West Brom came out with far more purporse in the second half, and a Billy Jones equaliser in the 64th minute meant that in the end we went away with a point.

1st Goalscorer:
15 points on Papiss Cisse at 6.5 - LOSS

West Bromwich Albion V Newcastle United (21/04/13)

My Tips For West Brom V The Toon

Despite the result last weekend it's clear who the bookies rate as the better side, as at the time of writing Sunderland are currently a 7.5 shot to go down compared to The Toon's odds of 21.0.

The league table is looking very tight this year though, so we need to quickly move on from our performance against the mackems and start getting some points in the bag, hopefully starting with West Brom...

Toon Tips:

Match Result: 
30 points on Draw at 3.4
With only one league win on our travels all season, and no points from our last four league away matches, it's difficult to have too much optimism but if I'm looking for positives then West Brom have been inconsistent at home in recent matches.  All things considered I'm keeping my expectations in check and therefore going for the draw.

1st Goalscorer:
15 points on Papiss Cisse at 6.5
Papiss Cisse's recent goal scoring form remains decent with 3 goals from our last 4 games in all competitions and 5 from our last 8, and without a dodgy linesman against Sunderland it would have been even more.

Newcastle United V Sunderland (14/04/13)

My Tips For The Toon V The Mackems

The disappointment of last night's Europa League exit is still present as I write this, but a positive second half performance meant that we went into the final few minutes with dreams of Cisse working his injury time magic once again, but unfortunately it wasn't to be.

Onto the mackems, and last week both my sets of tips made a profit, so hopefully that bodes well for my tips for Sunday's derby...

Toon Tips:

Match Result: 
30 points on Newcastle at 1.91
The form book can sometimes go out of the window for local derbies, but the Toon have won our last four league home matches, whereas the mackems haven't won in the league since 19th January (away to Wigan), so it's no surprise that the bookies have us as the odds on favourites.

To Score in 90 Minutes:
20 points on Papiss Cisse at 2.25
It's tempting to go for Shola the Mackem Slayer in this market, but the obvious concern with that bet is how long Shola will get on the field, so taking that into consideration I've decided to go for Papiss Cisse to continue his recent goal scoring form at St James Park.

The Toon V Fulham: Tips Round-Up

My Tips For Newcastle United V Fulham: Round-Up

 

What a finish! What a celebration!

Sometimes a photo says much more than words and the now famous photo by @TaylorsFistpump captures the moment perfectly.  What a finish!

Thanks to another injury time winner from Papiss Cisse we gained three more valuable points towards ensuring our Premership status, and Cisse's late strike also meant that my Toon tips returned a profit this week, as did my general football tips...

. . . . . . . .

Toon Tips:

Match Result:
20 points on Newcastle at 2.05 - WIN 41 points
Papiss Cisse hit an injury time winner for the third consecutive home match to ensure we continued our recent winning home form.

Winning Margin:
10 points on Newcastle By Exactly 1 Goal at 3.75 - WIN 38 points
That's now 7 of our 9 league victories at home this season which have been been won by a one goal margin.

Newcastle United V Fulham (07/04/13)

My Tips For The Toon V Fulham

Over-confidence has been my undoing in recent weeks, but despite this I still feel there are reasons for genuine optimism against Fulham, so I'm going to go reasonably confident with my tips once again this week.

Toon Tips:

Match Result:
20 points on Newcastle at 2.05
Despite our recent poor results against Man City and Wigan, our home form is pretty decent with four wins and a draw from our last five home matches in all competitions.  We were also missing a few players against Man City who are now back in the squad, so all things considered I fancy our chances for the three points.

Winning Margin:
10 points on Newcastle By Exactly 1 Goal at 3.75
Of our eight league victories at home this season, six of them have been won by a one goal margin.

Manchester City V Newcastle United (30/03/13)

My Tips For Man City V The Toon

Every match I give myself 100 points to place a few hypothetical bets on Newcastle and 100 points to place a few general football bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com.  I then compare how the two sets of bets perform and analyse whether it's better to bet with your heart or your head.

This is one week where it's a clear case of betting with my heart rather than my head, as Man City are understandably the odds on favourites.  I'm not a Traitorelli though, so I'm obviously not going to bet against us!  Despite Man City's squad of world class players, we showed against Chelsea that on our day we can give anyone a good match, and the statistics do provide some reasons to be optimistic...

Double Chance:
20 points on Newcastle Or Draw at 3.1
As you'd expect the bookies price Man City as the odds on favourites, but their recent league form has been inconsistent with only 2 victories from their last 6 league matches.  In fact our recent league form actually slightly edges out Man City's with 9 points for the Toon from our last 6 games versus 8 points for Man City.  There is still an element of betting with my heart in this one, but Man City certainly haven't looked unbeatable in recent matches so I'm going to go for an optimistic bet on us to get something from the match.

Both Teams To Score:
20 points on Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.8
7 of our last 8 league games have seen both teams get on the score sheet, so on the one hand this looks like an attractive bet.  However, it's worth also noting that when Man City win they tend to win without conceding (their last 9 victories in all competitions have been to nil).  Optimism has got the better of me though, so I'm going to bet on our run to continue rather than Man City's.

Wigan Athletic V Newcastle United (17/03/13)

My Tips For Wigan V The Toon

Every match I give myself 100 points to place a few hypothetical bets on Newcastle and 100 points to place a few general football bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com.  I then compare how the two sets of bets perform and analyse whether it's better to bet with your heart or your head.

Once again I'm skipping our Europa League match against Anzhi Makhachkala and making my next set of tips for our league match on Sunday away to Wigan...

Match Result:
30 points on Newcastle at 2.9
Wigan have actually got a better away record than they have at home and have only won two of their home league matches all season so I was slightly surprised that the bookies make Wigan the slight favourites.  Admittedly, their result against Everton last weekend showed that they're capable of the occasional random unexpected win so they could be a potential banana skin, but our odds of 2.9 nevertheless still look attractive.

Double Chance:
25 points on Newcastle or Draw at 1.53
Wigan have drawn or lost 12 of their 14 home league games this season, so Newcastle to win or draw looks to be decent value at 1.53.

The Toon V Stoke: Tips Round-Up

My Tips For Newcastle United V Stoke City: Round-Up

Every match I give myself 100 points to place a few hypothetical bets on Newcastle and 100 points to place a few general football bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com.  I then compare how the two sets of bets perform and analyse whether it's better to bet with your heart or your head.

Both my sets of tips made a small profit this week as once again I went for a confident set of Toon tips and although Stoke initially proved tricky to break down, we eventually came good.

Match Result:
30 points on Newcastle at 1.83 - WIN 55 points
We left it late but Papiss Cisse's injury time winner earned us the victory we deserved.

Goals:
20 points on Newcastle To Score 2+ Goals at 2.0 - WIN 40 points
We've now scored two or more goals in four of our last six league games, with nine goals coming in our last three league home games.