Thursday, 30 May 2013

The Latest Transfer Odds

Transfer Rumours: Who Will Be The Ins and Outs At St. James Park?

We're only a couple of weeks into the close season and already the transfer rumour mill is into full swing with new potential transfers being reported every day.  A lot of the time the stories make no sense at all and you get the impression sometimes that the papers have just plucked a player out of one hat and then plucked a team out of the next hat when coming up with their stories.

I think sometimes a better guide to potential transfers are the odds being offered by the bookies, as obviously bookies have a lot more to lose than newspapers if they get it wrong.

The latest rumour in yesterday's papers was that Monaco are interested in Hatem Ben Arfa and according to SkyBet the current odds on a move for Ben Arfa are as follows:

Monaco - 3.0
PSG - 9.0
Tottenham - 11.0
Liverpool - 13.0
Chelsea - 21.0
Juventus - 21.0
AC Milan - 23.0
Inter Milan - 26.0
Man City - 29.0
Man United - 34.0

The key thing to note, however, is that for players such as Wayne Rooney (and to a lesser degree Gareth Bale and Luis Suarez) where you suspect there is a realistic chance of them moving on, in those cases SkyBet also offer odds on whether the player in question will remain at his current club.

However, obviously bookies like to avoid paying out whenever possible so when a player seems settled and therefore more likely to remain at his current club, in those cases SkyBet avoid offering odds on that player staying put.  Rather tellingly, SkyBet don't offer odds on Ben Arfa staying at Newcastle which suggests that the mention of a move to Monaco is nothing more than paper talk.

Looking through the other transfer markets, here are a few players who SkyBet offer odds on a move to Newcastle.  I've also included the shortest priced transfer destaination in brackets:

Darren Bent - 5.0  (Fulham - 2.5)
Andy Carroll - 11.0  (West Ham - 1.5)
Peter Crouch - 21.0  (QPR - 3.0)
Nani - 26.0  (Monaco - 5.0)
Scott Sinclair - 34.0  (Liverpool - 6.0)
Wayne Rooney - 41.0  (Chelsea - 4.0)
Fernando Torres - 51.0  (Napoli - 7.0)

Only a few weeks ago, Andy Carroll was priced as short as 1.91 for a Newcastle move which seemed very tight indeed when you consider that the transfer fee Liverpool are after probably wouldn't fit in with Mike Ashley's track record in the transfer market.  Carroll's odds now are out to 11.0 which to me seems more realistic, although to be fair SkyBet also pay out on loan deals.

PaddyPower also offer odds on various players signing for Newcastle, and once again the shortest priced destination is shown in brackets:

Callum McManaman - 9.0  (Everton - 3.5)
Gary Hooper - 10.0  (West Ham - 4.0)
Richard Dunne - 11.0  (Hull 4.5)
Peter Odemwingie - 17.0  (Hull - 5.0)
Tom Ince - 21.0  (Tottenham - 2.1)
Marouane Fellaini - 67.0  (Man United - 1.5)

Looking at some of the names and odds shown above, the basic conclusion I would draw would be to stay away from transfer betting!

Finally, an interesting one I noticed in the Manager Specials on SkyBet was Alan Pardew to be the next Arsenal manager at odds of 67.0!

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All odds were correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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