Tuesday, 25 June 2013

First Premier League Manager To Leave?

The bookies don't rate Alan Pardew's chances of staying in his job...

The internet has unquestionably brought many positive benefits to the world, but it has also brought with it some negatives.  For example, because of the internet, last week while I was enjoying myself on holiday in Magalluf, I was unfortunately still able to discover the depressing news of Joe Kinnear's return to Newcastle.

Joe Kinnear's appointment has led to various theories among fans as to why Mike Ashley would ever consider making such a ludicrous appointment.

Perhaps Ashley appointed Kinnear because of his alleged excellent record as a manager which Joe has been telling everyone about.  It's an excellent CV, and if not for the fact that it's a complete work of fiction then you would possibly be impressed.  So maybe Mike Ashley is the only football fan in the country who isn't aware of Joe Kinnear's problem with differentiating the truth and reality from the fictitious version of history he seems to have dreamt up for himself.

Another theory is that Mike Ashley doesn't want to spend the cash and therefore he's brought in Joe Kinnear as a distractionary tactic to divert attention away from our lack of signings, and also to take the flak and divert criticism away from himself.

One theory put forward by some fans is that Mike Ashley wants rid of Alan Pardew but doesn't want to pay up the remainder of his eight year contract, so he's therefore brought in Kinnear to humiliate Pardew and force him out of the club.  A recent survey on The Mag suggested that most fans think Alan Pardew is now more likely to leave the club before Joe Kinnear, so as a matter of curiosity I decided to see what the bookies think about Pardew's possible departure by checking the latest odds for 'The Sack Race'.

PumaAlthough it's commonly referred to as 'The Sack Race', the actual betting market is generally listed as 'First Premier League Manager To Leave His Position' and applies to a manager either getting the sack or resigning.  Worryingly for Pardew, every bookmaker has him as the favourite to be the first Premier League manager to go.  SkyBet have him priced as short as 2.2, but you can find slightly better value at Bet Victor, Paddy Power and Coral where Pardew is still the favourite but priced at a slightly more generous 3.0.

The best odds currently available in the 'First Premier League Manager To Leave His Position' betting market are:

Alan Pardew - 3.0 (Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Coral)
Michael Laudrup - 5.0 (Bet Victor)
Andre Villas Boas - 13.0 (Coral, Bet Victor, Stan James, William Hill)
Martin Jol - 15.0 (SkyBet)
Paulo Di Canio - 17.0 (William Hill)
Chris Hughton - 21.0 (Paddy Power, Bet Victor, SkyBet, Ladbrokes)
Steve Bruce - 34.0 (Stan James, SkyBet, Bet Victor, William Hill)
Mark Hughes - 34.0 (Stan James, Coral, William Hill, Bet Victor)
Rest Of The Field - 34.0 and upwards

Of course Joe Kinnear's appointment won't be the only factor in Alan Pardew's skinny odds.  His poor managerial form last season and constant excuse making will also be a factor, as presumably the bookies reckon that the excuses will only work for so long if we have another disappointing season.

My own opinion is that having to answer to a clueless muppet like Joe Kinnear would be too much for most managers to put up with, so even though Pardew has shown himself to be a 'yes man' in the past, having to work with Joe Kinnear may prove to be too much even for Pardew to bear.

Having said that, while I would never wish health problems on anyone, if Kinnear carries on spouting off angry made-up patter and getting himself involved in unnecessary angry exchanges with people he's not fit to clean the boots of, then there's a chance he might aggravate his dodgy heart again and he might be forced to quit on health grounds.

So although I can understand why the bookies think Alan Pardew's remaining time at Newcastle could be fairly short lived, maybe it's wishful thinking on my part but I'm not convinced that Kinnear will be here for too long either.

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