Monday, 5 November 2012

Liverpool V The Toon: Tips Round-Up

My tips for Liverpool V Newcastle United: Round-Up

Every match I give myself 100 points to place a few hypothetical bets on Newcastle and 100 points to place a few general football bets using the odds available from  I then compare how the two sets of bets perform and analyse whether it's better to bet with your heart or your head.

I’m on a bit of a roll at the moment as this was the fourth week running that my Newcastle tips made a profit.  It was also the third time in four weeks that my general football bets have made a profit, but of the two sets of tips my Newcastle bets comfortably outperformed my general football bets… 

Full Time Result:
10 points on Draw at 4.0 – WIN 40 points
Despite Liverpool having the greater share of the first half possession, at half time I would have been disappointed with a draw.  However, once we went down to ten men we were hanging on so in the end it was a very welcome point.

Double Chance:
20 points on Newcastle or Draw at 2.25 – WIN 45 points
Before Sunday’s match, Liverpool had only won one of their five home league games so far this season, and we extended that record thanks to a well taken goal from Cabaye and some resilient defending and poor Liverpool finishing in the closing stages.

Handicap Betting: 
20 points on Newcastle +2 at 1.44 – WIN 29 points
Before the match this looked very generous from the bookies and that was the way it proved to be.

To Score In Ninety Minutes:
10 points on Demba Ba at 3.4 - LOSS
After a knock in training earlier in the week Demba Ba was a doubt for the Liverpool match, but although he ultimately made the starting line-up he was unable to find the back of the net.  He was also unable to finish the game and went off injured early in the second half.

Both Teams To Score:
20 points on Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.73 – WIN 35 points
Unfortunately, Suarez’s equaliser meant that we've now conceded in each of our last five league games.  We’ve also scored ourselves in seven of our last eight league games, so on current form the ‘Both Teams To Score’ bet is worth considering in forthcoming matches.

Draw No Bet:
10 points on Newcastle at 4.0 – No Bet (Stake returned) – 10 points

To Win Either Half:
10 points on Newcastle at 2.88 – WIN 29 points
Cabaye’s opener ensured we finished the first half in the driving seat and therefore this was another winning bet.

Making an overall return of 188 points from 100 points and therefore a respectable profit of 88 points.

This is how my general football bets performed...

Man U V Arsenal - Double Chance:
25 points on Arsenal or Draw at 2.0 - LOSS

Swansea V Chelsea - Half Time Result:
25 points on Chelsea at 2.25 - LOSS

Fulham V Everton - Full Time Result:
15 points on Draw at 3.4 – WIN 51 points

Sunderland V Aston Villa:
15 points on Draw at 3.4 - LOSS

Charlton V Middlesboro - Full Time Result:
20 points on Middlesboro at 2.8 – WIN 56 points

Making an overall return of 107 points and a slender profit of 7 points.

I’m performing well in both categories at the moment but my Newcastle bets have generally had the edge over my general football bets, so on current form the statistics suggest that it’s better to bet with your heart than your head.

The running totals in the comparative performance of my Newcastle bets and general football bets are currently as follows:
Newcastle tips – 5
General football tips – 2

Once again I'll be skipping the Europa League game against Bruges on Thursday night and instead making my tips within the next couple of days for the West Ham game on Sunday which sees the return of Carroll and Nolan to St James Park.  Check back before the weekend to see if I can make it five weeks in a row where I make a profit.

Disclaimer:  A small bet can make the match more exciting but gambling can be a risky business so never bet more than you can afford to lose.  The safest way to bet is with a free bet, so if you'd like the chance to claim a totally free £10 bet then sign up to SkyBet today using the banner link below:

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