Tuesday, 24 September 2013

Everton V Newcastle United (30/09/13)

"If we want to be serious about being in the top ten or look to bigger things, or be a big team in the Premier League, we have to start to take the chances we have." ...Fabricio Coloccini

As you'd expect given our disappointing result against Hull on Saturday, my Newcastle tips were a total washout last week.  My general football tips performed quite well, however, as I correctly predicted QPR to beat Yeovil 1-0 and Swansea to beat Crystal Palace.

Last season the trend was for my general football tips to regularly outperform my Newcastle tips, and things have started off once again in that vein of form.  I don't know whether that means it's therefore wiser to keep your emotions out of your betting choices, or maybe it just means Newcastle are an unpredictable side who often lose the games we should be winning.

I've come to the conclusion that when Newcastle play, a lot depends on which side turns up on the day, and by that I'm not necessarily referring to who Pardew picks in his starting eleven.  We just don't seem to have any consistency, and our performance can vary quite considerably even throughout the ninety minutes.

Despite that unpredictability, however, I'm still going to try to pick out some winning Toon bets.  I'm skipping our League Cup tie against Leeds and instead making a few predictions for our match against Everton on Monday...


Match Result:
10 points on Draw at 4.0 (Bet Victor, Stan James)
Everton have started the season quite well, recently beating West Ham and Chelsea, and every bookmaker has them priced as the odds on favourite for the victory.  Before their victories over West Ham and Chelsea, however, Everton drew their opening three league games, and after the performance against Hull I would happily take a point, so I'm going to go for another draw on Monday night.  However, if anyone fancies us to win then you can get odds of 6.5 from Boylesports on a Toon victory, with most other bookies pricing us at 6.0.

Team To Score First:
20 points on Newcastle at 3.35 (188Bet)
We've started games well and been the first team on the scoresheet in each of our three previous league games.  Everton on the other hand have only scored first in one of their five league matches (against Chelsea), so the 3.35 on offer from 188Bet for us to open the scoring seems like a reasonable bet.

Half Time Double Chance:
10 points on Newcastle or Draw at Half Time at 1.62 (Paddy Power, Bwin)
Everton have been slow starters but strong finishers this season, with only one of their six league goals coming in the first half, and five of their goals coming in the second half.  Statistically,  therefore a Half Time/Full Time bet on Newcastle/Everton seems like decent value.  However, I'm obviously not going to be a Traitorelli so instead I'm going to go for a bet on Newcastle or the draw in the Half Time Double Chance market, and then back it up with a small bet on the Toon to be leading at half time at odds of 6.0.

Half Time:
5 points on Newcastle at 6.0 (Stan James, Boylesports)


General Football Tips:

Stoke City V Norwich City - Match Result:
10 points on Stoke at 2.0 (General)

Tottenham V Chelsea - Over/Under 2.5 Goals:
10 points on Under 2.5 Goals at 1.95 (Stan James)

QPR V Middlesborough - Match Result:
10 points on QPR at 1.8 (Coral, Bet Victor, William Hill)

QPR V Middlesbrough - Correct Score Betting:
10 points on QPR To Win 1-0 at 8.0 (Ladbrokes)
QPR to win 1-0 came up for me last week and I'm going to tip them again to win by the same scoreline.  On recent form QPR are the masters of doing just enough, and they've now won 5 of their last 6 league games 1-0.

10 points on:  (Stan James)
Burnley V Charlton - Burnley at 1.9
Leicester V Barnsley - Leicester at 1.53

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Footnote: Odds correct at time of publication but are subect to change.

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