Thursday, 28 March 2013

Manchester City V Newcastle United (30/03/13)

My Tips For Man City V The Toon

Every match I give myself 100 points to place a few hypothetical bets on Newcastle and 100 points to place a few general football bets using the odds available from  I then compare how the two sets of bets perform and analyse whether it's better to bet with your heart or your head.

This is one week where it's a clear case of betting with my heart rather than my head, as Man City are understandably the odds on favourites.  I'm not a Traitorelli though, so I'm obviously not going to bet against us!  Despite Man City's squad of world class players, we showed against Chelsea that on our day we can give anyone a good match, and the statistics do provide some reasons to be optimistic...

Double Chance:
20 points on Newcastle Or Draw at 3.1
As you'd expect the bookies price Man City as the odds on favourites, but their recent league form has been inconsistent with only 2 victories from their last 6 league matches.  In fact our recent league form actually slightly edges out Man City's with 9 points for the Toon from our last 6 games versus 8 points for Man City.  There is still an element of betting with my heart in this one, but Man City certainly haven't looked unbeatable in recent matches so I'm going to go for an optimistic bet on us to get something from the match.

Both Teams To Score:
20 points on Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.8
7 of our last 8 league games have seen both teams get on the score sheet, so on the one hand this looks like an attractive bet.  However, it's worth also noting that when Man City win they tend to win without conceding (their last 9 victories in all competitions have been to nil).  Optimism has got the better of me though, so I'm going to bet on our run to continue rather than Man City's.

Handicap Betting:
20 points on Newcastle +2 at 1.8
It's fourteen games since we last lost by two or more goals (away to Brighton in the cup) and our team now is a very much different side to the one that faced Brighton.  Man City are the strongest side we've faced for a while, but as mentioned their recent league form has been inconsistent and only 1 of their last 6 league games has been won by two or more goals.

To Score In 90 Minutes:
20 points on Papiss Cisse at 4.33

Match Result:
10 points on Draw at 5.5

Half Time/Full Time:
10 points on Man City/Newcastle at 51.0
We showed a tremendous never-say-die spirit against Anzhi and Stoke to keep fighting until the final whistle and got a couple of late goals for our reward, so I'm going to round off the 100 points with a speculative bet at 51.0 on Chelsea to take a first half lead and for us then to stage a second half comeback.

I'm feeling in an optimistic mood this week though, so treat the above tips with caution!

Despite my general football tips recording a loss last time out, I've still nevertheless finished in the black in 7 of the last 9 weeks with my general football tips, so my overall form is reasonable.  Here are my general football tips this week...

Sunderland V Man United - Win To Nil:
20 points on Man United To Win To Nil at 2.75
Man United have won their last five league matches to nil.

Wigan V Norwich - Match Result:
20 points on Draw at 3.6

Everton V Stoke - Handicap Betting:
20 points on Everton -1 at 2.5

Swansea V Tottenham - First Goalscorer:
10 points on Gareth Bale To Be First Goalscorer at 5.0

Arsenal V Reading - Match Result:
10 points on Arsenal at 1.22

Scunthorpe V Leyton Orient - Match Result:
20 points on Orient to win at 2.6

I'll check back after the weekend to see how my tips performed.

Footnote:  A small bet can make the match more exciting but gambling can be a risky business so never bet more than you can afford to lose.  The safest way to bet is with a free bet, so if you'd like the chance to claim a totally free £10 bet then sign up to SkyBet today using the banner link below:

All odds were correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.

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