Saturday, 22 September 2012

Newcastle United V Norwich City (23/09/12)

My Tips For The Toon V Norwich City

Please note, this blog is just a bit of fun to test myself and also to test the theory that you should never let your heart rule your head.  It's simply for my own benefit to keep a record of how well my predictions do, and not intended as advice to be taken by anyone else.  If other football fans want to view my tips out of curiosity then that's fine, but I'm in no way proclaiming myself to be an amazing football expert.

Anyway, throughout the season I'm going to make a few tips on Newcastle games and also a few tips on other games and see which set of tips perform best.  In theory as a Newcastle fan I should know more about our current form, etc, and therefore my tips on Newcastle should theoretically outperform my tips on football in general.  However, it's hard sometimes as a football fan to remain objective and not let your heart rule your head so that's what I plan to test with this blog.

Anyway, I'm going to give myself 100 points (in both categories) and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from and see how I do.

Bets on Newcastle...
Full Time Result:
50 points on Newcastle at 1.8 
So far this season Norwich have drawn three of their four league games and we've drawm two of our four league games, so statistically a draw looks a reasonably priced bet at 3.8.  However, we've obviously got to be beating teams like Norwich at home so I'm going for 50 points on newcastle at 1.8.

Half Time/Full Time: 
10 points on Draw-Newcastle at 4.75
Although I fancy us for the win, we seem to have started games slowly and quite negatively, then if we've gone behind our performance has then picked up as we've started to attack and got forward.  I'm therefore going to go for a draw at half-time and then as the match progresses I can see us starting to attack more and being the better team in the second half.  For that reason I'm going to go for a small 10 point bet on the draw at half time and for us to win at full time.

Half With Most Goals:
40 points on 2nd Half at 2.0
For similar reasons I'm going to have a 40 point bet on there being more goals in the second half based on the prediction that we may be more attacking as the game progresses and therefore the second half may be more open.

And to see how my predictions compare, here are a few tips on some of the other games being played over the weekend...

Man City V Arsenal - Full Time Result:
40 points on Arsenal at 5.0
The bookies have this one priced as a likely home win but I see it being closer than the odds suggest and therefore Arsenal represent the value bet.

Derby V Burnley - Full Time Result:
30 points on Derby at 2.1

Millwall V Brighton - Full Tiume Result:
30 points on Brighton at 2.63

I'll check back after the weekend to see how well my tips performed.

Disclaimer:  A small bet can make a football match more exciting but the unpredicatability of the sport mean that having a large bet is just stupid.  Gambling can be a risky business so never bet more than you can afford to lose.  The safest way to bet is with points rather than pounds, so if you'd like the chance to gamble risk-free with points for the chance to win cash prizes then a website worth visiting is  It's free to sign up and they offer cash prizes for the most successful punters in various sporting categories.  If you'd like to check it out then click on the link below:
Bet with points for the chance to win cash prizes at

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